Key Findings
Using the photographic sight-resight method, the researchers estimated the dog population in the city of Kerman to be 6,781.
Without intervention, the population is projected to grow by 2.0 times over 5 years and 2.9 times over 10 years. To keep the population stable, approximately 30% of female dogs need to be sterilized annually.
Summary
In Iran, dog ownership as companion animals has traditionally been uncommon due to various social and cultural factors. Recently, however, there has been a rise in the number of families keeping dogs as pets, especially in larger metropolitan areas. Despite this shift, responsible dog ownership remains low, leading to a significant number of free-roaming dogs (FRDs) and abandoned puppies, particularly in urban and suburban areas. This situation has exacerbated human-dog conflicts, including frequent dog bites.
Despite the growing FRD population, there has been a lack of comprehensive studies on dog population estimates in Iran. Existing estimates are rough, based on the dog-to-human population ratio provided by organizations like the World Association for the Protection of Animals in 1990. This study, titled “Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran,” aimed to address this gap by estimating the population size of free-roaming dogs and studying their population dynamics through modeling. The goal was to determine the most appropriate dog population management (DPM) strategies, focusing on female dog neutering interventions under different levels of coverage.
The study was conducted in Kerman, the capital city of Kerman Province in southeastern Iran. Kerman has a population of approximately 547,558 people and covers an area of 220 square kilometers. To estimate the dog population, the study employed a block photography-based sight-resight survey method. The city was divided into 100 consecutive blocks, each covering about 2 square kilometers. Twenty-five blocks were randomly selected for the survey, along with all 15 suburbs surrounding the city, making a total of 40 blocks.
Two trained teams, each consisting of a driver and two observers, conducted the surveys by driving through the blocks at a constant speed of around 20 km/h. Surveys were conducted in the early morning hours (5:30-7:30 am) when free-roaming dogs are most active. Each observed dog was recorded along with demographic parameters such as age, sex, body condition, and behavior. Dogs were photographed using professional cameras, and the data collected included GPS coordinates and other relevant details. Two surveys were conducted in each block, one week apart, to ensure accurate capture and recapture data.
Using the captured data, the researchers estimated the population of free-roaming dogs in Kerman to be 6,781, translating to 1.2 dogs per 100 people and a population density of 30.8 dogs per square kilometer. A total of 1,509 dogs were recorded during the study, with a male-to-female ratio of approximately 3:1 (65.3% males, 21.1% females, and 13.6% unknown). The dogs were in healthy shape, with 81.5% having an ideal or overweight body condition. Dogs were most often found in vacant lots (46.2%), followed by streets/sidewalks (24.4%) and alleys (24.4%), making these prime spots for catching for sterilization.
The researchers also evaluated the impact of the current situation (status quo) and a proposed 5-year intervention program focusing on female dog sterilization. Without any intervention, the dog population was projected to increase by 2.0 and 2.9 times over 5 and 10 years, respectively. The researchers found that sterilizing approximately 30% of female dogs could keep the population relatively stable, while an intervention targeting the sterilization of 50% of female dogs could significantly reduce the dog population to 56% of the base population after 5 years and further down to 32% after 10 years, representing substantial reductions compared to the baseline population and the projected population with no intervention.
Despite employing the low-cost photography sight-resight method, the study offers a comprehensive estimate of the FRD population and its demographics. The findings highlight the significant scale of female dog sterilization programs needed to achieve meaningful reductions in the dog population.
Miscellaneous
Data From Study:
Dog Population Management / CNVR / Kerman, Iran
Year of Publication:
2022
External Link:
Shamsaddini, S., Ahmadi Gohari, M., Kamyabi, H. et al. Dynamic modeling of female neutering interventions for free-roaming dog population management in an urban setting of southeastern Iran. Sci Rep 12, 4781 (2022).
https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fs41598-022-08697-w